Real-Time Recession Probabilities for the US Economy
The Real-Time Recession Probabilities for the US Economy are obtained using the methodology in Paap et al. (2009). The probabilities are updated every month, shortly after the release of The Conference Board's economic indexes.
US Recession Probability Remains Constant At 0.0 Percent in November 2011
For the 26th subsequent month, both the coincident recession probability and the leading recession probability remained constant at 0.0 percent. The recession probabilities suggest that the current expansion is likely to continue in the foreseeable future. Read full report »...
Continue reading » December 29th, 2011
US Recession Probability Remains Constant At 0.0 Percent in October 2011
For the 25th subsequent month, both the coincident recession probability and the leading recession probability remained constant at 0.0 percent.
Continue reading » November 23rd, 2011
US Recession Probability Remains Constant At 0.0 Percent in September 2011
For the 24th subsequent month, both the coincident recession probability and the leading recession probability remained constant at 0.0 percent.
Continue reading » October 24th, 2011
US Recession Probability Remains Constant At 0.0 Percent in August 2011
For the 23rd subsequent month, both the coincident recession probability and the leading recession probability remained constant at 0.0 percent.
Continue reading » September 28th, 2011
US Recession Probability Remains Constant At 0.0 Percent in July 2011
For the 22nd subsequent month, both the coincident recession probability and the leading recession probability remained constant at 0.0 percent.
Continue reading » August 31st, 2011
